Snapshots

Sun Belt markets surpassed 98% of pre-pandemic leasing in the past six months

November 06, 2024

Contributors:

As the national office leasing recovery has accelerated, some markets have been ahead of the curve, one notable outperformer being Sun Belt markets, which across the entire region have recovered to over 98% of pre-pandemic levels in the past six months.

Robust population growth and relatively stronger job growth during the pandemic has fueled a consistent outpaced leasing recovery across Sun Belt markets during the pandemic, which is now again accelerating as corporate migration activity returns to the market.

Several high-profile HQ relocations have been announced YTD, with most examples including a migration to lower-cost markets and many of those destinations being Sun Belt markets. In recent months, Chevron announced its intention to relocate its HQ from the Bay Area to Houston, and Fortune 500 retailer Foot Locker announced its plans to relocate from New York to the Tampa metro.

Within the Sun Belt, major markets have generally seen the strongest recovery: Miami is exceeding pre-pandemic leasing by 20% over the past six months, Atlanta has outpaced pre-pandemic levels by 5%, and Dallas has slightly outpaced pre-pandemic levels by 0.1%. Other gateway markets have ranged from -60% to -12% when comparing the last six months to pre-pandemic levels.

Markets in the western U.S. are becoming more expensive labor markets amid outpaced wage growth.

High-quality trophy product and best-of-best locations are seeing the earliest recovery in the office market

Top markets have removed 5% of office stock since 2020, though redevelopment intensity varies geographically