Consumer spending drives investor revival for urban retail in 2024

CHICAGO, Feb. 20, 2024 – Urban retail is poised for an investor resurgence in 2024, underpinned by robust consumer spending, as well as record-low total retail vacancy. This led to a combined 3.3% growth in asking rents in prime retail corridors from 2022 to 2023, according to JLL’s 2024 City Retail Report. Consumer spending continues to grow, surpassing $705 billion in September of 2023, and retail vacancy reached a historic low of 4.2% at 2023 year-end.

"Urban retail has reclaimed its prominent position in the market in 2024 with its resilient tenant demand, robust occupancy rates and steady rent growth," said Senior Managing Director Chris Angelone, who co-leads the JLL Retail Capital Markets platform.

The performance of urban retail has been heavily supported by the performance in other property sectors. Office populations surpassed 50% across all major metros, urban hotel RevPAR has exceeded 2019 levels and residential population outflows from major cities have stabilized.

Furthermore, the reemergence of group, business and international travel activity is expected to further boost the performance of urban retail markets. As of September 2023, visitors to the United States had spent a combined $156 billion, a 31.6% increase over the same period the previous year and a 183.7% increase over 2021.

Despite resilient fundamentals backed by strong consumer demand, a lack of portfolio transactions and large-check size deals reinforced by debt market turbulence resulted in significant liquidity declines relative to abnormally high activity in 2021 and 2022. As a result, the U.S. urban retail transaction volume reached $4.8 billion in 2023, down 39% year-over-year. Albeit, relative to all other core property sectors, urban retail investment activity experienced the lowest level of decline year-over-year.

Investment activity is expected to accelerate over the next 12 to 18 months as a function of growing optimism for interest rate cuts this year, private equity fund life expirations and financial stress in the face of over $1 billion in U.S. urban retail securitized debt reaching maturity over the next three years (Trepp).

Most recently on February 8th, JLL Capital Markets closed the sale of 701 North Michigan Ave., a bespoke, 22,900-square-foot retail asset located at the base of the Warwick Allerton Hotel on Chicago’s “Magnificent Mile.” The property is currently leased to a high-performing Rolex, which occupies 2,240 square feet of ground-floor retail and 2,040 square feet of basement storage on a long-term basis. JLL represented the seller, Grosvenor, and procured the buyers, Mason Asset Management and Namdar Realty Group. Managing Director Keely Polczynski, Senior Director Michael Nieder, Associate John Dettlaff and Analyst Caity Tirakian led the JLL Investment Sales Advisory team in this transaction.

Previously, long-term tenants, Brooks Brothers and Stuart Weitzman, occupied the entire space, and both vacated during the pandemic. Subsequently, Rolex, who had enjoyed a long history across the street, leased the space to sit at the marquee corner with the added benefit of lower-level storage space. Rolex’s sales in its new location have remained extremely strong, and the company’s recent acquisition of Bucherer, one of Europe’s largest watch retailers and owner of the Tourneau chain, has added to the strength of the tenancy and appeal to co-tenants. The property features three small format vacancies, as well as additional basement storage, that are supported by the high leasing momentum on Michigan Avenue, providing Mason Asset Management and Namdar Realty Group with a value-add, lease-up opportunity.

“This was a heavily sought-after offering, given the opportunistic nature of the deal at a key corner along an internationally renowned high street,” said Polczynski. “There is a growing sentiment that the window to buy assets like this is closing.”

"Chicago is a growing market for us, and 701 North Michigan Avenue represents an exciting opportunity to expand our portfolio in high-end urban retail," said Elliot Nassim, Mason Asset Management. "We look forward to supporting Rolex's success with co-tenants that will further add to the dynamic mix of the block." 

JLL Capital Markets is a full-service global provider of capital solutions for real estate investors and occupiers. The firm's in-depth local market and global investor knowledge delivers the best-in-class solutions for clients — whether investment sales and advisory, debt advisory, equity advisory or a recapitalization. The firm has more than 3,000 Capital Markets specialists worldwide with offices in nearly 50 countries.

For more news, videos and research resources on JLL, please visit our newsroom.