United States Retail Outlook Q1 2024

The U.S. retail market dynamics have been shaped by demand outpacing supply in Q1 2024. Net deliveries remained modest at 9.5 million in the first quarter and most of the retail space under construction is pre-leased, leaving a mere 25% available for lease. Leasing activity in the period decreased due to a lack of suitable location availability. However, the leasing rate of 35.1% over the last 12 months was higher than the previous year's rate, indicating robust demand. Sun Belt markets saw more growth due to population increases and buying-power growth, while locations with older properties and stagnant populations performed under par.

A notable trend in the retail sector is the preference for small spaces of less than 2,500 square feet, accounting for over two-thirds of executed leases. In light of this, quick-service and fast-casual restaurants, usually fitting within this size range, reported almost 2,000 potential openings in 2024, including popular chains like McDonald's, Chipotle, and WingStop. There has also been a growing trend for retailers seeking high-quality mall spaces, seeing healthy demand for Class A malls. However, limited construction starts and moderate deliveries are expected to continue causing supply constraints in the near future.

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